Why the assembly election in Maharashtra is not just about bringing in a new state government

The assembly election is not just about electing a new government for the state. It will decide the political future of five prominent leaders: NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray who lost their maximum MLAs as well as party names and symbols to rebels supported by BJP; for chief minister Eknath Shinde who faces a make or break situation; Ajit Pawar whose political future depends on the result of the election and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis whose political career is at a crucial stage.

The Maharashtra election is also a high-stakes battle because its outcome will have an impact on national politics: A victory for the BJP-led NDA would strengthen the position of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a major blow for the Congress after the rout in Haryana polls. On the other hand, if the MVA wins power in a crucial state such as Maharashtra, the INDIA alliance will get a much-needed boost.

There are several factors at work and both sides are weighing various permutations and combinations. Here are the highlights of this electoral battle:

Revenge drama

Like a Bollywood potboiler, this election is also a revenge drama.

Both Pawar and Thackeray are looking to settle scores with Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde respectively who hijacked their parties and BJP which actively supported this.

Towards the fag end of his over five-decades-long political career, Pawar now 84, has been fighting probably the toughest political battle against his nephew Ajit whom he mentored, and the BJP, which has tried to finish him off politically. He has to win power in Maharashtra to decimate Ajit and regain control of his support base as he prepares to pass on the baton to his daughter and Baramati MP Supriya Sule.

For Uddhav Thackeray, 64, it is a tougher test to prove that his faction is the “real Shiv Sena”. Unlike in the case of Pawar, his adversary Shinde managed to win a sizeable number of Lok Sabha seats and is looking to win most of the seats in traditional Sena strongholds. The fight between Thackeray-led Sena and Shinde-led Sena will decide which faction can claim the legacy of party founder Balasaheb Thackeray.

For the BJP, it is time to finish what it started in 2019: It encouraged and helped Shinde and Ajit Pawar to walk away with most of the Shiv Sena and NCP MLAs and take over the party. It was done to “punish” Thackeray and Pawar for denying the BJP a chance to form a government though the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had got a clear majority in the 2019 elections. Thackeray insisted on sharing chief ministership for two and a half years each, which BJP turned down.

Following the development, Pawar brought him and the Congress on board to forge the MVA coalition and form the government in the state. The Shinde-BJP combine pulled down Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government in June 2022. A year later, the BJP supported Ajit Pawar to split the NCP and include him in the government. Besides “teaching a lesson” to Pawar and Thackeray, the BJP also wanted to foil the MVA coalition, which was the first experiment to bring opposition parties together to keep the BJP out of power.

Unlikely to be a repeat of the Lok Sabha elections

In the Lok Sabha election, the MVA won 30 seats while the Mahayuti could win only 17. One went to a Congress rebel who won as an independent and later joined the MVA. Assembly elections are being held six months later but the mood is not exactly the same. The split into two parties, the Maratha reservation, the allegations that industries and investment in Maharashtra were being taken to Gujarat, unhappy farmers especially onion growers, the controversy over alleged attempts to amend the constitution and anti-incumbency were seen as reasons for Mahayuti’s defeat in the state. It also had an impact on the NDA tally as it had won more than 40 seats in Maharashtra in 2014 and 2019 elections.

Learning quickly from its mistakes, the Mahayuti launched populist schemes to change the mood among the voters. Its ‘Ladki Bahin Yojna’ under which a cash handout of ₹1500 is given to poor women received a positive response from the women. Taking a leaf out of the BJP’s Haryana experiment, the Mahayuti government took more than 100 decisions to appease various castes and communities with sops and other announcements. It has also tried to win over a section among the Dalits by proposing sub-categorisation of the Scheduled Caste category which was the demand of smaller castes in the category. How much of these efforts have changed the situation on the ground will be known only when the votes are recounted on November 23 but the ruling alliance is not leaving any stone unturned. Even the MVA leaders acknowledge that the sops announced by the ruling alliance may have some impact.

Mahayuti leaders say the mood among Muslims and Dalits has also changed since Modi is not the face of the state BJP and the Constitution issue is over. The MVA leaders however point out that the slogans like “Batenge to Katenge” and “Vote Jihad” have revived the feeling of insecurity among the Muslims. Further, the controversy over the Constitution (Rahul Gandhi’s red-coloured copy of the Constitution was linked to Urban Naxals” by BJP leaders) may revive the memories of the Opposition's campaign that the Modi government wanted to amend the Constitution.

The caste factor

The Maratha community’s agitation for reservation in government jobs and education led by Manoj Jarange-Patil damaged the prospects of the ruling Mahayuti in Marathwada, western Maharashtra and north Maharashtra during the Lok Sabha elections. Jarange-Patil’s flip-flop over contesting elections has confused the community in the past few months. Mahayuti leaders hope that the sentiments against their parties have been diluted due to Jarange-Patil’s changing stand. The ruling alliance has also fielded a large number of Maratha candidates in areas that are under the activist’s influence.

On the other hand, opposition MVA leaders were happy when Jarange-Patil decided not to field the candidates in the assembly election. The MVA is hoping to benefit from the resentment in the Marathas community over the quota issue. The Mahayuti is focusing on local caste equations and the personal influence of its candidates. It has also been raising the issue of Hindutva by referring to Razakars—the army of Nizam that had committed atrocities on Hindus in the pre-Independence period. The BJP's attempts to mobilise OBC didn't work in Lok Sabha but there is some consolidation in Marathwada where Marathas are more aggressive.

It is wooing the Dhangar (shepherds) community, which has a presence and influence in several constituencies in western Maharashtra and some other parts of the state. On the other hand, the MVA is trying to channel the anger among tribals who have opposed the demand of Dhangars to include them in the Scheduled Tribes category. The anger was so great that tribal MLAs from all parties came together and staged a protest at the state secretariat in south Mumbai a few days before the elections were announced. The BJP is also focussing on various smaller castes that can change the arithmetic in constituencies. In closely fought elections, even a few thousand votes could be decisive.

Vidarbha and Mumbai-Konkan belt could play a decisive role

Maharashtra largely comprises five regions on the political map: Vidarbha (62 seats), western Maharashtra (58 seats) Marathwada (46 seats), North Maharashtra (47) and the Mumbai Metropolitan region-Konkan belt, which has 75 seats. In Lok Sabha, MVA dominated all of Vidarbha, Marathwada and western Maharashtra. It had an upper hand in the North as well though Mahayuti too bagged some seats.

The Mumbai-MMR-Konkan belt saw the Mahayuti scoring over MVA. As such the ruling Mahayuti focused on this belt first. The buzz created by the opposition is visible in western Maharashtra and to a certain extent in the rest of the state but missing in the MMR-Konkan belt as the MVA failed to create an atmosphere in this region. Most of the seats here are being contested by Shiv Sena (UBT). It is assumed that the Mahayuti will have a clear upper hand here.

MVA insiders say they have a favourable atmosphere in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Western Maharashtra which together have 166 seats. The north could be equally divided. However, the problem for them could be the Mumbai-MMR-Konkan belt. It has 75 seats and they need to win at least 30-35 seats here unless they are sweeping the three favourable area. Mahayuti leaders are hoping to win 45-50 seats in the MMR-Konkan belt and need to win 90-100 in the rest of the state. The electoral fight in western Maharashtra could be closed due to the Pawar factor though they will do well in cities and the constituencies of established leaders.

Rebels and independents

About one-third of constituencies have rebelled. They will definitely damage both sides. Besides, there are at least a dozen seats where allies from the same coalition have fielded their candidates against each other which is being described as friendly fights. Besides, at least half a dozen smaller parties including Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena have fielded 100 to 150 candidates each. These smaller parties and rebels could spoil the show for a number of candidates.

The past two decades have shown that in any election at least 20 to 30 independents and MLAs from small parties get elected. If none of the coalitions reaches the magic figure of 145 needed to form the government in the House of 288, the independents and small parties will be in demand and there could be intense horse-trading.

BJP brings in hardline Hindutva as there is no strong narrative from either side

Initially, there was no strong narrative from either side in this election. Soon after the Lok Sabha election, the two sides began with sops versus Maharashtra pride narratives.

Smarting from its defeat, Mahayuti came up with sops to reach out to several sections of society. The ‘Ladki Bahin Yojna’ created significant buzz but closer to the election, Mahayuti has realised it is not enough. The BJP has now started raising the hardline Hindutva.

“The hardline on Hindutva will help us to score over MVA in cities that have more than 100 seats. The Dalit-Muslim support coupled with other local factors such as Marathas in Marathwada-western Maharashtra, tribals in the tribal belt, Kunbi community in Vidarbha and the Marathi manoos plank in Mumbai and its neighbourhood gave the MVA an edge over us. Hindutva issue can make a dent in this support base,” said a senior BJP leader who asked not to be named.

The MVA is focussed on Maharashtra pride as the central theme of its campaign with various issues such as agrarian problems, inflation and unemployment alongside. The allegations that industries and employment are being taken away to Gujarat and Shinde-Fadnavis are facilitating it are being used to support the Maharashtra pride plank by the opposition parties. The split in two regional parties is still an issue but it is not clear how much it will influence the voters.

Both the coalitions are confident that they will win.

“The mood among the people is in fact better than Lok Sabha (for us). People have made up their minds and decided whom to vote for. After the Lok Sabha, they have confidence that they can remove this government from the office,” said Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray while talking to HT on Friday.

BJP’s national general secretary Vinod Tawde said: “The difference between MVA and us was a mere 0.3% in terms of votes. Our government took various decisions for the welfare of the people which has changed the situation. I think the Mahayuti will win 155 to 165 seats and form the next government.”