Two democracies, common interests
Shared values define India’s ties with US, but the two need a conversation on immigration & trade
It’s official. President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be visiting the United States (US) in February. Earlier, both leaders reiterated their commitment to enhancing what they termed a “mutually beneficial and trusted partnership”. India-US relations have warmed in the past few years to such an extent that they are expected to be firewalled from the change of guard in Washington, and Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) project and multiple policy reversals, which have unsettled the global order and America’s relations with its neighbours, partners, and friends and foes alike. There is broad convergence in both the capitals on the big issues including support for a rules-based global order, peace in Ukraine, the need to diversify supply chains beyond China, an open seas policy, and the security of the Indo-Pacific. The Biden administration was accommodative of India’s pursuit of an independent foreign policy, especially its privileging of energy security, and the advocacy of Global South’s interests in the management of the climate crisis.
However, both leaders may now need a frank conversation on a host of issues that resonate with their respective domestic constituencies. For instance, Trump 2.0 is focussed on curbing immigration and tilting trade ties in America’s favour. While New Delhi has said it will cooperate with Washington on stopping illegal migration (India is among the top source countries for illegal migration into the US), the MAGA constituency’s approach to the H-1B visa programme may trigger negative sentiments. Here, New Delhi must emphasise that H-1B visa holders, Indian students in the US, and Indian companies contribute significantly to the American economy. Indian students, the largest segment among foreign students in the US, contributed roughly over $10 billion and helped create over 100,000 jobs in the US — in just one academic year. Similarly, a Confederation of Indian Industries survey discovered that 163 Indian companies invested $40 billion by 2023, and created 425,000 jobs, in the US. India-US bilateral trade is estimated at $190 billion and favours India. Trump’s threat to weaponise tariffs to change it in America’s favour may see pressure on India to liberalise its market for American agri-produce. India will need to evaluate the trade-off as it pursues critical and emerging technologies from Washington.
That Modi’s Washington visit was announced in the backdrop of Delhi and Beijing agreeing on a host of measures — among them the restarting of direct flights between India and China, enhancing people-to-people contact, and the resumption of the Kailash-Mansarovar Yatra — is significant. Smart foreign policy is about prioritising national interest and balancing relations with both friends and foes.