Articles by Samiran Chakraborty
Potential targets for the Union Budget
Spending the allocated FY25 capex in the near term and going ahead with next-generation reforms will be among the cornerstones of Budget FY26
![FILE PHOTO: A general view of a market in New Delhi, India, September 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo (REUTERS) FILE PHOTO: A general view of a market in New Delhi, India, September 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo (REUTERS)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2025/01/28/150x84/FILE-PHOTO--A-general-view-of-a-market-in-New-Delh_1738075725096.jpg)
Published on Jan 28, 2025 08:18 PM IST
Fiscal consolidation, with a reform vision
Budget 2024 balances the need to spur economic growth with the need to signal commitment to fiscal prudence
![Noida, India- July 23, 2024: People watching the live telecast of Union Budget 2024, at a shop in Sector 51. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Union Budget of the Modi government, in Noida, India, on Tuesday, July 23, 2024. (Photo by Sunil Ghosh / Hindustan Times) Noida, India- July 23, 2024: People watching the live telecast of Union Budget 2024, at a shop in Sector 51. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Union Budget of the Modi government, in Noida, India, on Tuesday, July 23, 2024. (Photo by Sunil Ghosh / Hindustan Times)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/img/2024/07/25/150x84/Noida--India--July-23--2024--People-watching-the-l_1721921685051.jpg)
Published on Jul 25, 2024 09:05 PM IST
Adding arrows to new regime’s policy quiver
An economy which is performing several steps ahead of its peers, does not need an overhauling of the policy framework.
![As we neared the end of 2022-23, there was near-consensus on real growth. The cited figure was between 6.8 and 7%. There is less consensus for 2023-24 and the medium-term. An optimist will say 6.5%, a pessimist 5.5%. An enthusiastic optimist will place it at 7%, a dire pessimist at 5%. While that’s a fairly broad band, there is no denying the Indian economy’s growth resilience. (Shutterstock) As we neared the end of 2022-23, there was near-consensus on real growth. The cited figure was between 6.8 and 7%. There is less consensus for 2023-24 and the medium-term. An optimist will say 6.5%, a pessimist 5.5%. An enthusiastic optimist will place it at 7%, a dire pessimist at 5%. While that’s a fairly broad band, there is no denying the Indian economy’s growth resilience. (Shutterstock)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2024/06/09/148x111/As-we-neared-the-end-of-2022-23--there-was-near-co_1681625317461_1717962789858.jpg)
Published on Jun 10, 2024 01:28 AM IST
Monetary policy has an inflation dilemma
Faced with low core inflation and high food inflation, RBI will likely tilt towards a longer disinflationary stance, to achieve the 4% CPI rate
![India’s recent inflation has been a tale of two prices. Food inflation remains elevated at 7.6% but core inflation has dropped sharply to 3.6% in January 2024 India’s recent inflation has been a tale of two prices. Food inflation remains elevated at 7.6% but core inflation has dropped sharply to 3.6% in January 2024](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2024/02/26/148x111/fa69b61e-2cca-11ec-bf76-acac15ac8e08_1634201264299_1708929555133.png)
Published on Feb 26, 2024 12:10 PM IST
Building the backdrop for lower interest rates
Focus on fiscal consolidation, moderate capex push and eschewed pre-election populism define the interim budget
![New Delhi, India - Feb. 1, 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman, Union Minister of Finance along with Bhagwat Karad and Pankaj Chaudhary MOS Finance leaves the Finance Ministry carrying the Finance Budget ahead of the presentation of interim Budget 2024 in Parliament at North Block in New Delhi, India, on Thursday, February 1, 2024. (Photo by Sanchit Khanna/ Hindustan Times)(Hindustan Times) New Delhi, India - Feb. 1, 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman, Union Minister of Finance along with Bhagwat Karad and Pankaj Chaudhary MOS Finance leaves the Finance Ministry carrying the Finance Budget ahead of the presentation of interim Budget 2024 in Parliament at North Block in New Delhi, India, on Thursday, February 1, 2024. (Photo by Sanchit Khanna/ Hindustan Times)(Hindustan Times)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2024/02/04/148x111/Budget-Session-18_1707024123978_1707071070879.jpg)
Published on Feb 05, 2024 08:00 AM IST
Is there more room for competitive populism?
Higher than expected tax revenues provide a cushion for the government. However, concerns remain about the medium-term fiscal deficit
![Competitive populism seems to have taken centrestage with not much discussion about its fiscal ramifications(HT Archive) Competitive populism seems to have taken centrestage with not much discussion about its fiscal ramifications(HT Archive)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2023/11/15/148x111/20210805_DGZ-SAL_Dasna_Ration_free-04_1700058907275_1700058933958.jpg)
Published on Nov 15, 2023 10:51 PM IST
Inflation fears throw up policy dilemmas
Several interventions are being tried to cool prices but different measures might have conflicting impacts. Instead, a nimble, vigilant balance is preferable
![Tomatoes may have hogged the recent headlines, but the recent vegetable price rise is broad-based (PTI) Tomatoes may have hogged the recent headlines, but the recent vegetable price rise is broad-based (PTI)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2023/08/28/148x111/The-retail-price-of-tomatoes-procured-by-NCCF-and-_1692034654661_1693240626803.jpg)
Published on Aug 29, 2023 12:26 AM IST
Modest MSP hike is a tightrope act by govt
MSPs for kharif season are the highest in the last five years, but lower than prior pre-general election years, underlining the Centre’s careful balancing act
![The burning question is how to think about the degree of MSP increase, and where it stands vis-à-vis meeting the twin objectives of boosting rural incomes but not being inflationary. (SANJEEV KUMAR/HT PHOTO) The burning question is how to think about the degree of MSP increase, and where it stands vis-à-vis meeting the twin objectives of boosting rural incomes but not being inflationary. (SANJEEV KUMAR/HT PHOTO)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2023/06/13/148x111/adfea1d2-7250-11ed-bd01-73668e446825_1669994462046_1686670943765.jpg)
Published on Jun 13, 2023 09:36 PM IST
₹2,000 note move may have marginal impact
The decision to withdraw the banknotes will impact liquidity, bank deposits and policy rates. All eyes will be on the share of notes exchanged versus deposited
![Even if 10-20% of the <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>2,000 notes are deposited, the banking system liquid-ity will improve by <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>35,000-70,000 crore. This would imply that the RBI is less likely to change its monetary policy stance in June (SANTOSH KUMAR/HT PHOTO) Even if 10-20% of the <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>2,000 notes are deposited, the banking system liquid-ity will improve by <span class='webrupee'>₹</span>35,000-70,000 crore. This would imply that the RBI is less likely to change its monetary policy stance in June (SANTOSH KUMAR/HT PHOTO)](https://www.hindustantimes.com/ht-img/img/2023/05/24/150x84/Even-if-10-20--of-the--2-000-notes-are-deposited--_1684935447269.jpg)
Updated on May 24, 2023 07:12 PM IST
Budget: Focus on the quality of expenditure
India judiciously refrained from a large demand-side fiscal stimulus even during the pandemic by focusing on more public capex to build the supply side. It is important to continue with that theme in the FY24 budget
![To start with, high-frequency growth indicators are doing reasonably well. Our combined index from these indicators, called Growth Activity Tracker for India (GATI), shows that even after a slight moderation in the last couple of months, the growth momentum is now close to the pre-pandemic average. (Sonu Mehta/HT PHOTO) To start with, high-frequency growth indicators are doing reasonably well. Our combined index from these indicators, called Growth Activity Tracker for India (GATI), shows that even after a slight moderation in the last couple of months, the growth momentum is now close to the pre-pandemic average. (Sonu Mehta/HT PHOTO)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/img/2023/01/30/150x84/To-start-with--high-frequency-growth-indicators-ar_1675089162837.jpg)
Updated on Jan 30, 2023 08:04 PM IST
In the inflation fight, a liquidity conundrum
Without any liquidity provision by RBI, bank deposit rates could go up; funding the State’s fiscal deficit could be more challenging, and credit growth may falter
![The Reserve Bank of India should be conscious of creating enough liquidity to ensure money supply growth broadly tracks nominal GDP growth (HT) The Reserve Bank of India should be conscious of creating enough liquidity to ensure money supply growth broadly tracks nominal GDP growth (HT)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/img/2022/10/19/150x84/cf668cee-4fab-11ed-9c66-3477b4c7a0de_1666189558301.jpg)
Updated on Oct 19, 2022 08:03 PM IST
Farmer terms of trade: A nimble balancing act
The Centre will have to balance between curbing inflation and food prices, and ensuring cultivators’ welfare and backing rural demand growth
![Farmers also face another kind of ‘terms of trade’ challenge: Between food prices and non-food prices. This indicator has been worsening for farmers, but over the last six months, the trend has been somewhat arrested. (PTI) Farmers also face another kind of ‘terms of trade’ challenge: Between food prices and non-food prices. This indicator has been worsening for farmers, but over the last six months, the trend has been somewhat arrested. (PTI)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/img/2022/06/01/148x111/5adfe744-d7a6-11ec-a9a0-a5db2aa6f789_1652987146845_1654089435834.jpg)
Published on Jun 01, 2022 06:49 PM IST
What to expect from this year’s Union Budget
The finance minister is likely to focus on the economy beyond the pandemic. Energising medium-term growth drivers will be key and the government should target high capex growth to sustain the infrastructure development momentum
![The perennial dilemma of the budget — between spending to stimulate growth and maintaining fiscal discipline — is more accentuated in a year such as this when economic recovery has been uneven and the fiscal situation, precarious. (MINT) The perennial dilemma of the budget — between spending to stimulate growth and maintaining fiscal discipline — is more accentuated in a year such as this when economic recovery has been uneven and the fiscal situation, precarious. (MINT)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/img/2022/01/28/150x84/b0dbfa4a-804c-11ec-b6cc-0e3362d10988_1643382915953.jpg)
Updated on Jan 28, 2022 08:53 PM IST
Budget 2020: Nirmala Sitharaman will have to make difficult choices
The near-term focus must be on balancing the demand stimulus, fiscal consolidation and credible accounting
![Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman addresses a press conference, New Delhi, January 28, 2020(ANI) Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman addresses a press conference, New Delhi, January 28, 2020(ANI)](https://images.hindustantimes.com/rf/image_size_300x169/HT/p2/2020/01/28/Pictures/finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman-addresses-conference-press_b94244f4-41ca-11ea-b306-d18e31211930.jpg)
Published on Jan 28, 2020 07:40 PM IST
Recovery takes time
If all the supportive policies are in place and confidence improves, then we can hope to see some recovery in investment in late 2013 or 2014. A good budget is important but we have to be patient as well., writes Samiran Chakraborty.
![](https://images.hindustantimes.com/rf/image_size_640x362/HT/p1/2013/02/23/Incoming/Pictures/1016201_Wallpaper2.jpg)
Updated on Feb 26, 2013 11:26 PM IST