Assam by-polls outcome a test for three political bigwigs

In the 2021 assembly polls, the Dholai and Behali seats were won by the BJP while AGP and UPPL won the Bongaigaon and Sidli seats. The Samaguri seat was won by Congress. With the next assembly poll less than one and a half years away, the by-elections are being seen by many as a semi-final.

Gaurav Gogoi

The son of three-time chief minister Tarun Gogoi, the 42-year-old successfully managed to outrun the strong and relentless campaign by the ruling BJP during the Lok Sabha polls and wrested the Jorhat seat from the saffron party. This was Gogoi’s first electoral victory since his father’s death during the Covid pandemic. The Congress making him the deputy leader of the party in Lok Sabha for the second consecutive term following his win has added to his stature both in the party and in his home state.

For the by-election, Congress had cobbled up an alliance of 16 opposition parties, which were expected to have a say in the candidate selection process. But despite the opposition platform opting for a candidate from CPI (ML) in the Behali seat, Gogoi threw his weight behind Jayanta Bora, a BJP turncoat. The Congress high command went with Gogoi’s choice, which led to a collapse of the opposition alliance and put Gogoi in the crosshairs of former allies.

Bora getting the ticket led to some heartburn within the Congress as well. But Gogoi actively campaigned for him with the hope of wresting the seat from the BJP. If Bora manages to win by defeating BJP’s Diganta Ghatowar, it will boost Gogoi’s stature further, making him a serious contender for the chief minister’s post in 2026. But if his chosen candidate loses, differences within the Congress in the state could resurface and the chasm between the party and other opposition parties grow wider.

Rakibul Hussain

The son of former Congress minister, Nurul Hussain, the 60-year-old has won from the Samaguri seat five consecutive times since 2001. The constituency is seen as his impregnable fortress. But despite his unwillingness, the Congress high command asked him to contest the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat this year instead of Nagaon, which he had preferred.

Overcoming his initial reservations, Hussain trounced sitting Dhubri MP and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Badruddin Ajmal by a record margin of over a million votes. Five months following that triumph, Hussain faced another electoral battle, this time in his home turf of Samaguri where his son Tanzil was given the Congress ticket for the by-election.

Hussain’s move from Samaguri to Dhubri, located around 370 km away, hasn’t gone well with some sections of voters who feel he has deserted them. The Congress's decision to give the ticket to Hussain’s son also riled some voters. With the AIUDF deciding not to field any candidate from the seat where minority voters play a decisive role in the outcome, the ruling BJP, which fielded Diplu Ranjan Sarma, is hoping to win the seat for the first time targeting Hussain for neglecting Samaguri for over two decades and nepotism.

The keenly contested seat witnessed incidents of pre-poll violence between both Congress and BJP supporters; journalists covering the campaign were also targeted. A win for Tanzil would mean the continuation of Hussain and his family’s hold over the seat, but a loss would hurt his political career and ensure further inroads by the BJP into traditional Congress vote banks.

Phani Bhushan Choudhury

No other politician in Assam has had such a long and successful electoral innings as AGP’s Phani Bhushan Choudhury. The 72-year-old has won from the Bongaigaon assembly seat eight times since 1985. But despite his unwillingness to contest, the AGP leadership fielded him as its candidate from the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat this year. Choudhury continued his winning streak in the new seat as well but his home constituency became vacant for the first time in four decades.

While AGP’s local leaders in Bongaigaon wanted a change of face, the party leadership chose Choudhury’s wife, Deeptimoyee, a political greenhorn, as their candidate for the by-election. This led to differences within AGP and 36 party leaders and workers from the district unit including president Bijay Singha and general secretary Shailen Sarkar resigning from the party. Sarkar contested the by-election as an independent candidate, accusing Choudhury of failing to develop Bongaigaon in the past four decades.

Choudhury, who is very popular among voters in Bongaigaon due to his easy approachability and affable nature, told local TV channels that he will not participate in electoral politics in future. His popularity could help his wife secure a win this time. With assembly polls due in 2026, observers say Deeptimoyee could be a temporary arrangement until son Shantanu is handed the AGP ticket in the next election. But if Choudhury’s wife loses, it would end the winning streak and hurt the veteran’s political future in the state.